506 - Migration: What Drives It and How to Better Project It
As birthrates have fallen, migration has become an increasingly important determinant of U.S. population growth and age structure. As a consequence, it has also become an increasingly important determinant of economic performance, fiscal capacity, and the sustainability of government spending commitments. Yet the migration assumptions that actuaries and demographers use in making population projections remain largely ad hoc. The prevailing belief seems to be that migration flows, because they are subject to the vagaries of unexpected crises and policy shifts, are simply too volatile and unpredictable to model. This session seeks to challenge that belief. While it is true that in the near-term migration flows are indeed volatile and unpredictable, in the long term they are closely correlated with broader demographic, economic, and social trends that can be modeled with reasonable confidence. Speakers at this session discuss the push and pull factors that drive migration internationally, and explain how a modeling those same factors can improve long-term domestic population projections.
Speakers:
Liaw Huang
Mr. Thomas S. Terry
Richard Jackson